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1. Trend: Generative AI is enabling fraudsters to create more deceptive phishing campaigns, deepfakes and cyberthreats that evade standard detection methods.

Proof: FraudGPT is a real service (among others) on the dark web, giving cybercriminals the power of generative AI with no security guardrails. Want malicious code? Just ask. Need language translation and images for a phishing campaign? Done to perfection. Phishing attacks have increased over 1,200% in 2023 — a meteoric rise since the release of GenAI.

Prediction: The volume and sophistication of attacks will continue to rise as GenAI gets smarter and bad actors learn how to wield its power. Organizations will race to implement GenAI security and fraud detection, able to solve for deepfake voice authentication, fake IDs and phishing.

2. Trend: Malicious mobile apps, masquerading as real, trusted apps, have spread like wildfire on app stores around the globe in 2023. Mobile banking trojans and remote access trojans (RATs) make it easy to steal user credentials and one-time passcodes (OTPs).

Proof: Gigabud RAT emerged in 2023, able to record the screen of an infected device and evade detection by delaying the execution of the malicious payload, which contains strings and commands obscured by encryption.

Prediction: Expect new regulatory compliance standards will demand more of businesses and government agencies with consumer-facing apps. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has already signaled that new security mandates are on the horizon for global banks.

3. Trend: Authorized push payment (APP) fraud is on the rise for one simple reason: companies don’t have a way to stop it. Victims are tricked into approving money transfers.

Proof: Financial losses from APP fraud are projected to double across the UK, India and the US in the next four years, hitting $5.25B by 2026.

Prediction: Companies will turn to generative AI as the only hope for detecting aberrant behavior in real time to stop APP fraud.

4. Trend: Digital wallets and identity verification based on eIDAS 2.0 will become more usable, closing the door to some identity threats while improving interoperability across EU borders.

Proof: Machine readable codes and digital signatures enable verified claims and user authentication that works much like social logins or BYOID but far more security.

Prediction: Cybersecurity vendors like Transmit Security will begin to support these digital IDs to establish a higher level of trust for account recovery and high-risk transactions.

5. Trend: Cybercriminals continue to use tried-and-true tactics, like credential stuffing with great success.

Proof: 23andMe and PayPal credential stuffing attacks came to light in 2023, proving consumers still reuse the same username/password to ‘secure’ many accounts. Educating the public is not enough. According to Verizon, 49% of breaches involve stolen credentials and digital black markets, like Genesis, are fueling the problem.

Prediction: To avoid damaging headlines and fraud losses, organizations will take a more proactive approach in 2024. AI-powered identity-security services will be essential.

6. Trend: Attacks on identity infrastructure itself, reflecting an escalation in attacks designed to steal credentials on a grand scale.

Proof: The leading IAM vendor suffered three breaches this year back-to-back in 2023.

Prediction: Organizations will look for identity vendors with cybersecurity expertise and identity-security services purpose-built to fend off today’s most advanced cyber attacks.